Hey guys, here are my quick thoughts/predictions for today's matches - no analysis really today, sorry :S

Titan>Orbit 2-0, Titan have 2-0ed Orbit in the past, and I don't see why they would lose a BO3 now. I placed a max bet on Titan for overpay, I don't suggest you bet on this unless you do the same.

PENTA>Reason 2-1 This could go either way as it's a 50/50, but I'm going to bet on PENTA for odds. I don't recommend that you bet too much here...

VP>Mouz 2-1, but I'm going to skip this as the golden VP rule applies here, as well as Mousesports LAN (bad), so I'm going to recommend a skip here.

Ducks ??? Overgaming, I haven't done much research though...at least I can say that THIS IS NOT THE SAME OVERGAMING THAT BEAT VP! THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW OG LINEUP!

Zibrilo ??? Quit = no ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ clue on this match

Also, would anyone like to see maskedapple join me on this page? He's a pretty good analyst over at /r/csgobetting, and also has an expert flair!~

On a final note, follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/iragequithard! Just made it ~2 days ago
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Best regards, IRageQuitHard

Here's a video on why you should consider max betting! It's an expensive startup, but can make you a ton of cash. Plus, there are some one sided matchups today >.> (the video is processing though, right now at 8:30 EST)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eij38tPWuM&feature=youtu.be

Just an update, I actually did end up betting on both SKDC and VexX, although I did say that I skipped SKDC. I did more research prior to the match (around 15-30m) and pretty much decided that there was no way SKDC would lose against Syops in a BO3, unless they were blatant hacking. SKDC has had decent performance against T1/T2 teams in scrims, while Syops struggled vs unknown teams. Oh well, it really seemed like a risky match to bet on prior to doing more research. Regardless, here were my winning bets from yesterday!

(I got overpay on SKDC, but no overpay whatsoever on VexX)

http://i.imgur.com/8vxVK8i.png

Let's not waste time, we have more matches to predict/analyse! You're not going to be happy if you have a small inventory though....there is one risky match though you could ICB on, since it's a best of 1 and a throw (or beatdown) could happen. For people who are fortunate enough to max bet though, this should be another easy two wins. I hate to analyse/predict these types of matches though, since it takes no skill to do so and it's pretty much expected
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Hyphen vs JC, best of 1

On the first glance of this matchup, I only knew the team Hypen from earlier CS:GO Lounge matchups, but I don't really know much about the team Jesus Christ (edit: JC=Vexxstar). Checking HLTV/reddit, I was surprised to see m0E/steel to be filling in for two members of Hyphen, so are they playing from NA to an EU game...?

Regardless, many people on HLTV/reddit are basically saying that even with the ping, both m0E and steel are consistently able to top frag and basically stomp on the UK scene of CS:GO. It's a best of one though, and anything could happen. Plus, m0E is known to be a shady guy sometimes, and who knows, that really small chance of a throw really could happen. I'll skip myself since I don't want to risk high/$240 for this match, in the fear of that possibility of a throw. It's also a BO1 too, and BO1's favor the underdog.

This is also a good read (potentially): http://www.reddit.com/r/csgobetting/comments/2pfyv7/hyphen_vs_jesus_christ_bo1_17122014_2030_cet/cmwejw3

TL;DR, m0E and steel have to pretty much full on carry the other 3 members of Hyphen if they want to win - which means that there is a decent chance of an upset! Vexxstar is a somewhat decent team

My recommendation here would be to ICB on Jesus Christ or skip, I would not feel comfortable betting more than an ICB on a shady BO1 like this. There is a small potential of an upset, but it isn't likely if it sounds like m0E alone can 30 bomb even with his ping. Regardless, that's what an ICB is for anyway

Edit: I went low+ on JC myself.
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iBuyPower vs eLevate

Well, not much to say here....iBuyPower is pretty much expected to 2-0 stomp eLevate like last time, and I really don't see anything else happen. Frankly, I'll be surprised/impressed that eLevate take a map.

eLevate has trouble beating some higher up T2 teams/all tier 1 teams, while iBP pretty much a tier 1 NA team. That along with the fact it's a BO3 and over an important tournament qualifier, makes it pretty much impossible for eLevate to win a BO3 vs pretty much a top 5 NA team for sure.

I would not recommend an ICB on eLevate, as you're basically tossing skins to the CS:GO Lounge bot. Really again the Lounge odds are ♥♥♥♥♥♥, so the only feasible option is to max bet or bet high on iBP (if you can afford a loss). I really hate to give max bet recommendations, I've been giving so many lately and they're so boring >.>

Just make sure to get at least $1-2 in your expected return though so you at least get some return!

Regardless my recommendation is to bet high/max bet/skip!
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Denial vs Lunatik

Well, another expected BO3 stomp...exciting day eh? BO3's will pretty much almost always favor the team expected to win, as they have a 1 game barrier in which they can just take the entire series.

Even with shahzam out of Denial now and adren now in, I don't really see much of a difference - Denial is still a team that is pretty much a step (or a couple) ahead of Lunatik in terms of skill in all different aspects. These odds are once again pretty ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ as they're BO3's with favored teams winning, and I don't think I've seen a single upset in the 3 days this crap has been going on (which was expected). In every way though, mechanical skill, teamwork, experience, pretty much Denial>Lunatik. Denial isn't a team that gives PUG level strats, while Lunatik pretty much lost to RhyThm barely in a BO3, which basically is a PUG team (bunch of good aimers, meh strat execution).

You could ICB hoping that adren is a big enough change for Denial such that Denial somehow lose a BO3, but I don't see that happening. Real odds should be around 85/15 Denial, but I'll probably still max bet hoping for overpay to make the odds worth.

TL:DR Tier 1 NA vs mid-low Tier 2 NA in a BO3=expected 2-0 with scorelines around 16-7 to 16-10

An upset here is possible, but it is very, very unlikely. I'll take that risk though, as I've made enough from max betting already haha

I'll be max betting here as soon as iBP win!
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My current bets (will max bet Denial later): http://i.imgur.com/95J4e2C.png
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Best regards, IRageQuitHard

EDIT: Just a quick update, I renamed my "EZ SKINS EZ LIFE" series to "low budget bets", since we're not really playing with that much value (that's flashy to people). Should I make a new EZ SKINS EZ LIFE series with my own bets? hehe

Hmm I've been thinking for a while, should I get rid of the win/loss counter? I think it's pretty stupid but a lot of other people do it. But I play the odds though....

Bets won: 55
Bets lost: 28

congrats Planetkey Dynamics for upsetting Mousesports 2-1 (even though PKD won 4/5 past head to heads in the past)! Anyone here bet on PKD? I would have, but all my 60 value skins are on France and the ESEC predictions bet
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I recommend a SKIP for the Athletico vs Aftershock game, because I don't have any idea about either team, neither do most of you. You guys can do the research yourself on reddit/HLTV/tournament page, but I won't as I think it's a waste of time. If you have some extra skins you're willing to lose, by all means do the research and bet on who you think will win

Which comes to the point where I say that you should never bet on unknown games, unless you go very small on the underdog and the underdog is an unknown team. I've seen many upsets where there was no info on the unknown team, and the unknown team just ended up crushing (Pachulis vs Overgaming, for example). Obviously there are some exceptions (tier 1 teams in every region vs unknown), but don't ever go above medium for an low tier vs unknown match - those matches are really unpredictable. So if you bet on these matches, a good rule of thumb is to check if you'll be ok if you lose - I myself am, if France somehow lose for example, I can just buy a bunch of keys and convert back to asiimovs with my former winnings

I know the majority of you don't really care about betting for the long term, but give it a good thought - sure you'll see yourself betting less, but over time, the odds will go to your favor - they did for me. I'll give more future thoughts on how I bet/give tips/recommendations if people like them.
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EDIT: ♥♥♥♥ forgot about Energy vs. nAv....anyway with nAv's Sonic gone, I really don't see them winning against Energy. At the same time though, I think the odds are skewed by around ~10%. Bet at your own risk, I wouldn't recommend above a medium bet though.
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Anyways, congrats to the Planetkey Dynamics winners! Feel free to post your winnings here, but please don't bash anyone for their winnings or losses (or I might have to give a warning).....

TL;DR: Grats to the PKD bettors! Feel free to post screens here, but keep things civil. Also, some basic tips on betting are above
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On a last note, RIP odds for France winning ESEC, also RIP odds France/Poland. I still think France is the safer match to win with that power lineup though....regardless, I still think they'll win, so bet high on them/max bet if you have to. Just be prepared if they somehow lose though (which I really doubt)....

Feel free to ask any questions about betting here, as long as it's not TOO basic of a thing for me to explain
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Best regards, IRageQuitHard

EDIT: EZ SKINZ EZ LIFE episode 5 here!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQHIUaKdTtU&index=5&list=PLrBp2C2VNFEKddWkZoKD8qjL4crGJrDXI

MATCH PREDICTIONS BELOW (if you are tired of reading my other ♥♥♥♥)!

First thing to read before you read my predictions - hate mail. As much as I like to see the usual "♥♥♥♥ you", "I lost my all in", etc, it actually is a pain in the ass to deal with some of you guys because you just can't suck it up yourselves. Please keep it to yourself unlike this guy today lol

Hate mail album (one new submission from yesterday): http://imgur.com/a/iAh9W

Buuuut ♥♥♥♥ it, I'll be able to last a little longer (hopefully). TL:DR, just unlike the page and stop following my predictions/analyses (hell, bet against me), if you are in for the short term - I don't bet like that. Otherwise, I would basically be betting on every favored team

I'll make an update for EZ SKINZ EZ LIFE episode 4 on this post, but I may just quit the whole thing later due to me getting a ton of ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥/hate mail from yesterday, lol

Yesterday was a ♥♥♥♥♥♥ day to play the odds, as I lost around ~$110 - the first time I really lost money from betting in two weeks. My inventory consists of 5 $60 value skins now before I have to use PayPal to buy skins again (even though I cashout often), so I'll try to make the best use of them so I can stay in the game.

I'm not really upset about the team I bet on/bet portion, I think I made pretty good bets based on odds (denial win 16-13, LTK lose map 3 double OT nuke). Just kind of upset the teams I bet on really choked hard yesterday/lost by a close margain (eLevate, Flipsid3, Lunatik). Anyway it's time to forget all that, and remember about tomorrow's games with ESEC! I don't think the underdogs really have a chance this time...

Regardless, here are my predictions/analyses for the ESEC matches!
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Bets won: 53
Bets lost: 28

Match Information
Date: 14th of December 2014
Time: 11:00 CET
Tournament/League: ESEC LAN Finals
LAN/Online: LAN
Maps: BO3 TBA - TBA - (TBA)
Poland: (VP) Neo, Taz, byali, (ESC) MINISE, innocent
Finland: (3DMAX) REFLEX, KHRN, natu, (ajrui) STOVVE, (N/A) suNny
(Will add matchlink for HLTV as soon as I see the match there.)

There really should be no reason why Poland lose this BO3 against Finland, We have 3 members of VP playing on Poland, and 2 members from ESC also representing them. We saw them yesterday on how they played against Na'Vi, and frankly they really should have 2-0ed Na'Vi, if it wasn't for the constant DDOS attacks. I think that should shut down any argument saying that the ESC members are trash, as they clearly aren't with how they managed to basically 2-0 Na'Vi (in my eyes).

Finland on the other hand has 3 members from 3DMAX, and two lower tier players. This is basically a tier 1 matchup vs tier 2/3, and the odds reflect that with 86% on Poland. I'll probably max bet on Poland myself as I can probably get overpay and I don't see them losing, but if you have any belief that Winland can pull it off, then by all means throw an ICB-low bet at them. Regardless, my choice will be Poland.

I'll be max betting on Poland (and will be hoping for some overpay...)!
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Match Information
Date: 14th of December 2014
Time: 14:00 CET
Tournament/League: ESEC LAN Finals
LAN/Online: LAN
Maps: BO3
Sweden: (Fnatic) pronax, (duttdutt) schneider, (FlipSid3) twist, (Orbit) pauf, pyth
France: (LDLC) Happy, kioShiMa, shox, (Titan) apEX, kennyS

Another power lineup we've seen here with France, I remember seeing France winning the last "country tournament", pretty much winning against every other country. I'm actually confused as to why this match has less skewed odds towards France, as we've basically seen the same exact power lineup a few weeks ago basically demolish every other team out there. I'm pretty much 100% confident that France's power lineup will be able to handle Sweden's, as there is only one member of Fnatic (versus 2-3 members last time), Schneider, Twist, pauf, and pyth. By all means all 5 members of Sweden are pretty decent players, but I just don't see them upsetting France's power lineup.

Maybe there's the small 5-10% chance that Sweden is just that miracle team that makes Sweden look like a high tier 1 team, but I don't see them beating France's mix, especially with how I've seen results in the past with France. Sweden's new lineup is weaker than their old lineup, and even then their old lineup almost lost to a team like Norway in a BO3, ending on an OT on inferno (I remember this because I max bet on Sweden with 90% odds)

I'm going to max bet on France, if CS:GO Lounge is able to draft winnings fast enough from Poland's game. Hopefully I'll get overpay here too, will update after tomorrow
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Lastly because of this, I'm going to place my ESEC LAN Finals prediction on France, and will probably toss whatever I have left (my extra $60 skin), on France. I don't see them losing against any team, other than Poland. Even then, nobody can really outawp KennyS' reaction times and fluid movement, let alone handle 3 members of LDLC.

I apologize for yesterday's losses, I've lost a ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ from yesterday as you can see here:

http://i.imgur.com/XaKqD49.png
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Here are my bets for ESEC though!

http://i.imgur.com/2zfuy17.png
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Best regards, IRageQuitHard

EZ SKINZ EZ LIFE episode 4 here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhYLfrYDX8g&index=4&list=PLrBp2C2VNFEKddWkZoKD8qjL4crGJrDXI

Hey guys, how did your betting yesterday go? I gained $20 value even after today's 2 VexX losses, because I spaced out my bets with good bet portions on each individual game

Bets won: 50
Bets lost: 24

LDLC>3DMAX, because a team that won Dreamhack Winter is not going to lose a best of 3 versus a team like 3DMAX, that lost to Clutchit and also couldn't even go to Dreamhack Winter. I don't see a top 1/2 team in the world losing a best of 3 against a T3/T4 team. Don't bet on 3DMAX, no matter how juicy the odds look. Only on LDLC if you have an inventory big enough to get a bigger than $2 return, otherwise you will most likely get nothing. I'm going to bet $240 myself (4 field tested asiimovs), so I can hopefully get overpay. I explained this max betting in a YouTube video, find it on my channel!

PENTA>Epsilon is probably the best bet to do here, bet very small on PENTA. I don't know why a team that beat iBP is getting odds this low, but bet low on them for odds - this is still a coin flip, and a high risk game. I'll be skipping this match myself!

Flipsid3>Mouz is the smarter bet to do here, Flipsid3 is actually a team that has played very well against mouz in the past - bringing 2 OT's a 14-16 loss, and a win against them on dust_2! Check HLTV if you think I'm lying, haha. Betting small-med on Flipsid3 is my recommendation here, I will be doing so

Na'Vi>ESC, but this is a higher risk potential big bet to do here. I may choose to do a max bet here, but it's a riskier max bet - ESC could possibly end up 2-1ing Na'Vi. Na'Vi did go far in dreamhack winter, but at the same time they are playing online this time...going very low on ESC is also an ok bet, just don't be surprised if you lose your skins though. I'm going to lock down my guess on Na'Vi though!

Denial>Winout, I'm 99% sure that a team like Denial won't lose against a team like Winout, a team that died with relative ease in the RGN tournament and also lost to teams like AMS - which is a team that Denial could probably stomp. Denial recently beat C9 2-0, which is a relatively big feat (as they're top 1/2 NA). TL:DR, I don't see winout taking this BO3 - it will be a surprise to me if they even take one map. I'll probably max bet on Denial, and my prediction is on them!

Lookout for me to update bets in the comments section, as I'm currently trading up for 4 Field Tested AWP asiimovs!
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Best regards, IRageQuitHard