TSM vs Envy

So this is the BO3 grand final of the Counter Pit League, winner taking home 50,000 I believe, so that grants that both teams will try their hardest here. According to HLTV, Envy has some sort of a veto advantage which I've no idea how it works, i suppose they get the first ban/an extra ban. Historically, TSM has had a very bad time vs Envy, which I don't understand as in my eyes, Envy and Fnatic play a lot of the same concepts, and I mean TSM has no problem handling Fnatic, who you could argue are better than Envy. Everyone knows how these come down, top 3 teams coming against eachother, mostly comes down to who is feeling it on the day and what not, for me it's 42-58 in favor of Envy, mainly due to recent form and the historical advantage. Heavily recommend just playing the odds here with a low bet, if Envy is above 64%, just go low TSM, if they are below that, go low Envy. Either team can take this.

NiP vs Gamers2

So this is a BO1 between NiP and G2, also previously known as Kinguin. The map here is Train so that is handy to know. Obviously G2 will be playing with a TBA standin for this matchup, as ScreaM left them really recently. This is quite tricky to predict, and interesting. There is a lot of rumors that 3 of the G2 players will be moving over to NiP, and I'm pretty sure the players themselves are aware of these rumors, do they play a part here? who knows. NiP are obviously playing a no respect style as of right now, and it is really evident if you watch their matches, other pros have picked up on it and what not, now yesterday when watching Mouz vs G2, G2 also appeared to just play a no respect style vs Mouz. May this have been because they knew it would work, or the team simply not caring, we don't know, however if it comes down to PUG vs PUG, I'm not even sure who to favor. Train is a good map for both teams, G2 has had some really good results on it in the past, but so have NiP. G2 obviously have been looking really hot as of recent, so that is something to keep in mind. Honestly, 60-40 here for NiP and with the odds being 70-30 as we speak, a low on G2 definitely seems juicy. Unless NiP is below 65%, I'll go low G2 and would advise the same.

NiP vs TSM

Ah lord, so this time around it's a BO1 on Dust2, the classical upset map. Last 5 times these two have met, TSM has completely demolished TSM, except the 1 time they played Dust2, where NiP demolished TSM which is a bit worrying. According to Thorin, Dust2 is TSM's best map, so lets go by that. Not to even get me started that this map is really good for teams that play a really puggy style, so that is another point going in the way of NiP here. There isn't much to say here, I would obviously favor TSM here, however not by a lot. I'd say 38-62 in favor of TSM is fair here and unless TSM is above 67%, I'll go low on them, if they are above, I'll go low NiP as they definitely are capable of upsetting TSM here.

NiP vs HR

And once again a BO1 on Dust2, this time with HR. HR are good on the map, they have had some really good results on it, such as beating TSM and what not on it recently, which is good. They recently picked up a really talented player in S1mple, and I feel that if he is on his A game here, he could definitely punish NiP if they continue playing such an aggressive, no ♥♥♥♥♥ given style that they have shown recently. Dust2 is a very heavy AWP map, and Mou and S1mple once again can be really instrumental here for HR. Allu and F0rest will have to be on their A game aswell if they want to get anything out of this. I'm going to favor NiP here obviously, however not too much, 65-35 in favor of them for me. Going low on NiP if they are below 70%, if they are above I'll go low on HR and will hope for S1mple to mad frag and win.

Virtus Pro vs Na'Vi

These matches are so hard. BO1 between VP and Na'Vi on Mirage, holy sheet. They met eachother on this map at the start of the month, with Na'Vi clinching it out in OT. Both of these teams at one point were the best Mirage team in the world, and I mean you could still argue that either still is the best on it, so this is no easy task and doesn't specifically favor either team. Right now, I think that VP are the better team on the map however, so lets go with that. I also think that VP are in a better position as a team right now, while as Na'Vi has been on the side of a lot of rumors circulating them, which is never good. Personally going to give this one a 60-40 in favor of VP. Unless VP goes above 66%, I'll go low on them. Na'Vi is well capable of upsetting so low bets only please.

Envy vs VP

Please stahp ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥. So once again here we got a wild Mirage in a BO1. These two played Mirage like 3 days ago with VP taking it quite comfortably, however their CT side was pretty lackluster, and I reckon Byali carrying them on the T side won them the game, as he topfragged by quite a bit(30kills). I definitely think that this map should favor VP, Envy is good on it of course, however I feel VP has it on lockdown and should be favored here. There isn't much to say in these as it just comes down to who is feeling it and what not, who wins the clutch and such. 55-45 in favor of VP here, and unless they are above 60%, I'll go low on them, otherwise low Envy.

Flipsid3 vs Mouz

So this time around we got no maps, and it is a BO2 between these two, horray! I'll be surprised if either team gets 2-0'd here, as I fully expect it to end in a 1-1. Mouz looked shockingly bad vs G2 yesterday, however picked it up a notch vs Property. I feel a lot of people are jumping aboard the 'Mouz is ♥♥♥♥' hype train, and we currently find Mouz at 38% which is a bit over the top. I've found with both of these teams, they are quite inconcistent, they can be either doing really well, or just playing really bad. I would not say F3 deserve to be favorites here, even with the results of Mouz yesterday. F3 is not all butterflies and rainbows either, and in a BO2, eh. 60-40 Mouz here, and unless they go above 65%, I'll go low on them.

Titan vs G2

Oh lord why you do this. BO1 on Train right here. This one isn't actually on Lounge right now, however it's on HLTV forums so I'll presume they are going to add it, however I've got no odds to work with. So once again, G2 will have a TBD standin here, which I hate as one day it's Xizt, then Pauf, then Flusha yesterday, who is next. So obviously just a few days ago Titan picked up G2's ex man now, ScreaM so a reunion so quick is sure going to leave a few bitter tastes. These two actually played Train at the start of the month, with G2 taking it 16:13 which is really close, and you could argue Titan has improved since then, and yes Maniac did bottom frag that map, ScreaM went +1. This is gonna be so close, I am going to favor Titan however, I'm going to give it a 58-42 in favor of Titan, as I feel they are going to be more prepared, and perhaps ScreaM can give some inside info, and it may play in the back of the G2 guys, putting them off. Unless Titan goes above 65%, I'll go low on them.

Obviously these are EU ones, will do NA ones once we have a clear list!

8
Date Risk My Odds
*Team Bet on*
Team Bet Against
Recommended Bet Size Winnngs Balance Proof Result
9
10
27/09/2015 High Orbit 40% Orbit M&R
Low/ICB on Orbit
11
27/09/2015 High AT 50% Alientech K1ck. PT Low on AT
12
27/09/2015 Med Fnatic 60% Fnatic Envy
Low on Fnatic( you can choose to play the odds here, I think nV has 40% chance)

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Fnatic vs Envy

Maps: BO5 TBD

Odds When Posted: Fnatic 72% vs Envy 28%

Data: Fnatic and Envy are both playing on relatively the same skill level right now but I would definitely say that fnatic have the higher skill cap when they are bringing their absolute A game. It's not necessary for them to go super try hard as this league isn't that important but they may go hard for the rivalry. I think this game is realistically 65-35 for Fnatic and it will go to the 5th map.

Prediction: Fnatic 3:2

Risk: VERY HIGH

Advice: bet on either side is fair but i will bet low on ENVY

My Bet: low envy $100
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Torpedo vs LDLC Blue

Maps: BO1

Odds When Posted: Torpedo 75% vs LDLC Blue 25%

Data: Torpedo have been honestly playing at a really high level of play lately. I don't think we should underestimate LDLC Blue in a best of 1 at all as they are very capable of creating havoc on maps that are a bit less mainstream. Overall I think the expectation is that Torpedo should win this but I think LDLC Blue has around 35% chance to win rather than 25% but I will be going VERY LOW on LDLC Blue as the odds are worth it in a best of 1.

Prediction: Torpedo 16:13

Risk: HIGH

Advice: very low ldlc blue

My Bet: very low $50
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Conquest vs Method

Maps: BO2 TBD

Odds When Posted: Conquest 80% vs Method 20%

Data: In a best of 1 series I would give a 67-33 advantage to conquest depending on what the map selection is but for Method to win both maps and 2-0 Conquest is quite unlikely. I think that the odds are pretty fairly rated and a bet on either side will be pretty good. Method and Conquest have been both looking quite on point lately so that will be something to note when you are betting on this game.

Prediction: 1:1

26/09/2015 Short Summaries EU
Apologies for missing NiP vs Fnatic, I think everyone knew my decision there, just 2-3% on NiP.

Dignitas vs Immunity

Dignitas recently aquired Schneider into their roster, he is a really good player I believe, he used to play in Fnatic before Olof and Krimz were up there, and you could argue he was their best player. He took a break for quite some time, and now is back. His performances have been quite mixed honestly, he either bottom frags really heavily and can't get anything started, or he just carried the team and has really impactful rounds. Immunity is an Australian team that we don't know much of, mainly due to the lack of coverage within the AUS scene, such as no ESEA leageus and such, and that is why Renegades for example are moving over the NA, to increase their field of practice and what not. I think Immunity can be decent, in a BO1 they could definitely work something out here, however in a BO3.....80-25 Dignitas and since Imm have 10%, I will simply skip. If you were to bet, ICB on Immunity.

VP vs Envyus

So a BO5 between these two, ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ this is hard. Obviously VP are back from vacation recently, and have looked shaky ever since coming back, getting crushed by TSM and having a close series with Orbit, however lets not look too deep into that. VP I don't think are the most skilled lineup individually, like Envyus man for man definitely is stronger than them, however I feel VP has a lot of team chemistry along them which allows them to propell. We have seen what the VP Plow can do during ESL Dubai, but we've also seen VP lose to a multiple 10% teams, so that is that, obviously they are really inconsistent. Envy like I said I think man for man is better than VP, they are still a new roster, and by idea should continue to improve as time goes on, however only time will tell that. Envy aswell appear to be pretty up and down with this roster, sometimes they have marvellous performances while other times they are just not there to play. Overall I'd favor Envy here, however not by too much, 58-42 in favor of Envy only because of VP's last few games. Since Envy is at 70% and rising as of now, going low on VP will most likely be my bet here. Unless Envy goes below 65%, I'll go low on VP.

Flipsid3 vs CW

This one is a tough one. Obviously these two played eachother a few days ago, which ended in a complete disaster for CW, however lets move on past from that. CW are a team that I think has a lot of potential, they have some really heavy hitters that can definitely come out on top here, if they want to, players like Twist, Rubhino and others, heck the whole team can come up big and have shown it over multiple series. CW has a lot of problems too however, obviously their consistency issues, their CT sides appear to just be horrible, they better hope they start T side and get 10~ rounds if they hope to continue with their style of CT.Flipsid3 has been kinda up and down themselves recently, losing a BO2 to CLG, nearly falling to Property, very nearly losing to Orbit, and just isn't as smooth sailing as you could expect from them. Now obviously they are good players, however I seriously think when Bondik is not feeling it, they are lacking a lot in terms of frags and just impact players, WorldEdit not being on his best for quite some time now also is not helping the team. Obviously I think F3 should be favorites here, however 62-38 in favor of F3, and would just recommend betting the odds. If F3 is below 68%, go low on them, if they are above, go low on CW as they could definitely upset.

Liquid vs Renegades

And the toughest to the last. Renegades obviously are looking quite bad as of right now, they played eachother about 2 days ago I believe, however it was a really, really close series and could've went either way, well apart from the 16:5 win from Liquid on Overpass. Renegades definitely are not looking their best, by any means. Their in-game abilities are not looking sharp, and most importantly their just attitude is not looking promising, I remember watching them play, and whenever the facecam went onto them, they'd look ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ depressing, which is really worrying to be honest. Liquid are at their all time high right now if I say so, picking up Hiko has really lifted the team to hights they haven't hit before, and that is good to see for them. They are playing really good CSGO for the most part, and vs Renegades, first two maps they looked unstoppable, obviously before it hit the CT side, their CT side on that day was shockingly bad. Renegades are really slow starters, it's a ongoing trend at this point so eh, it being a BO3 helps them I reckon. I disagree with 75-25 in favor of Liquid, for me this is a 60-40 in favor of Liquid, and I will be going low on Renegades since I'm practically giving them double the chance to win.

That earlier post was SKT fakers

Will be posting KRISTYBOIS predictions when he posts them